AUD/USD Upsides Capped, Dollar Extends Gains

Key Highlights

  • AUD/USD declined below the 0.7650 and 0.7600 support levels.

  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 0.7670 on the 4-hour chart.

  • EUR/USD extended its decline, GBP/USD is struggling to stay above 1.3600.

  • The US ADP Employment changed 174Kin Jan 2021, more than the 49K forecast.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.7700 support against the US Dollar. AUD/USD even broke the 0.7650 support level to move into a short-term bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair even extended its decline below the 0.7600 level. It settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

A low was formed near 0.7563 before AUD/USD started an upside correction. There was a break above the 0.7600 resistance. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7704 high to 0.7563 low.

On the upside, the pair is facing a strong resistance near 0.7660 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7670 on the same chart.

If there is a clear break above the trend line, the pair could rise towards the next key resistance near the 0.7700 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

If there is no upside break, the pair could decline towards the 0.7560 and 0.7550 support levels in the near term.

Fundamentally, the US ADP Employment Change for Jan 2021 was released yesterday by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The market was looking for a rise of 49K in jobs.

The actual result was better than the forecast, as the US ADP Employment increased 174Kin Jan 2021. The last reading was revised from -123K to -78K.

Commenting on the report, the vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, Ahu Yildirmaz, stated:

The labor market continues its slow recovery amid COVID-19 headwinds. Although job losses were previously concentrated among small and midsized businesses, we are now seeing signs of the prolonged impact of the pandemic on large companies as well.

Overall, AUD/USD might struggle to continue higher above 0.7670 considering the US Dollar seems to be gaining traction.

Economic Releases

  • BoE Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 0.1%, versus 0.1% previous.

  • US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 830K, versus 847K previous.

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