Forecast for EUR/USD on December 16, 2020


The euro grew by a symbolic 6 points on Tuesday. Affected by the lack of new information regarding the plans for Brexit, the escalation of the situation around the quarantine in the United States before Christmas and expectations on today's Federal Reserve meeting. \

Market participants are waiting for new data on the QE program from the Fed. But making any amendments to monetary policy is associated with the same uncertainties: Brexit, quarantine, a new stimulus from the government worth 748 billion dollars. The stimulus package is considered the most definite issue - both houses of Congress agreed to vote for it, but it is also the most important until the moment of Brexit itself, and since the funds will be raised from other countries through government bonds, this will cause the demand for dollars and its strengthening ... And this will allow the Fed to adjust the current QE program to reduce it. Markets, as a rule, immediately start working out such scenarios, respectively, we are waiting for the euro to fall.

The daily chart shows that the price has been staying near the 1.2175 level for three days now, and the Marlin oscillator is dropping lower and lower, reducing the likelihood of a divergence. Now the price rising to 1.2230 may come with a spike due to the short-term speculation on the news release. In general, we expect the euro to fall to the nearest target of 1.2040. And by surpassing support, we expect the price to fall to 1.1935 - to the MACD line on the daily.

The four-hour chart shows that the price is on the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator lies on the horizon before the border of the downward trend area. The situation is slightly more bearish than bullish.

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