Forecast for USD/JPY on January 5, 2021


Fluctuations in the yen in choosing its path between the fall of the stock market (to follow it and strengthen against the dollar) and the global strengthening of the dollar (to weaken), which we talked about yesterday, took shape in technical outlines this morning.

On the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair, a double convergence with the Marlin oscillator is almost ripe, but the price visually feels comfortable under the resistance of 103.18 and is not averse to going against the convergence with the target at 102.35. Likely to increase until limited by the resistance of the MACD line at the 103.75 level, which tells us about the development of the price in a downward channel until the price settles above this line. Therefore, rising towards 103.75 may bring back the decline.

The trend remains downward on the four-hour chart; the price develops under the balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of negative values. This chart also suggests that going above 103.18 is not enough for an upward momentum to develop; the price should also surpass the MACD line at 103.30e. In general, we believe that the USD/JPY pair is likely to decline by 60%.

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