The US 100 cash index came back swinging after the retreat in September, powering higher to reach a new record of 16,457 last week. The picture remains bright overall, with the market trading above all its moving averages (MAs) and an uptrend line drawn from the lows of September 2020.
Short-term oscillators are transmitting mixed messages. The MACD looks ready to cross above its red trigger line, which would be an encouraging signal. However, the RSI is testing its overbought 70 zone, something that typically precedes a pullback in the index.
If buyers remain in charge, their first target will likely be the record high of 16,457. A violation would bring the market into uncharted waters, turning the focus towards round psychological numbers like 17,000 that could provide resistance. Even higher, the bulls might encounter a tougher battle around 17,730, which is the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the September-October pullback.
Now in case the bears retake control, initial support may be found near the crossroads of the 15,900 zone and the 20-day MA. Sinking lower, the 50-day MA currently at 15,430 could come into play, alongside the neighboring 15,330 barrier. If this area is breached too, all eyes would turn to the intersection of the 15,000 region and the uptrend line.
In short, the technical picture is overwhelmingly positive. For that to change, the sellers would need to punch below the 14,400 low and the 200-day MA.