USDJPY is retreating below the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs) and is creating a fresh one-month low of 108.45 today. The aggressive selling interest started from the one-year high of 109.85, with the technical indicators confirming the recent move. The RSI is heading south in the oversold zone, while the stochastic is approaching the negative territory.
More decreases below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 104.40 to 109.85 at 108.45 could take the pair until the 50.0% Fibonacci of 107.68 and the 61.8% Fibonacci of 106.90. Otherwise, a jump above 108.90 and the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) could drive the price towards the bearish crossover within the 40- and 200-period SMAs at 109.15. Rising above this cross, the market could flirt with the 23.6% Fibonacci of 109.40 around the Ichimoku cloud and the 109.95 barrier, which stands above the two-week falling channel. To conclude, USDJPY is falling around the one-month trough near the lower band of the channel and is holding in a strong bearish move in the short term.