The broad-based US dollar is going to end this week on the bearish track as downbeat U.S. economic data and optimism over the coronavirus vaccines tend to urge investors to seek out riskier assets tied to global commodities and emerging markets. Apart from this, the losses in the US dollar could also be associated with doubts over the US economic recovery from COVID-19. It is worth mentioning that the number of global COVID-19 cases has crossed 60 million as of Nov. 26, of which approximately 12.7 million are U.S. cases, as per the Johns Hopkins University data. This, in turn, kept the American currency under pressure.
Looking ahead into the coming week, the series of Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Claims, along with OPEC Meetings, and RBA Rate Statement can drive plenty of headlines to keep the markets on move. Besides, the geopolitical tensions and coronavirus headlines will also closely followed as they could play a key role to determine risk levels in the market.
Top Five Economic Events to Watch This Week
1 – NBS Manufacturing PMI: – Monday – 1:00 GMT
NBS Manufacturing PMI:
This data is normally released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), which measures business conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector. However, the reading above 50 shows expansion in the Chinese economy, conversely, the reading under 50 suggests contraction in the Chinese economy. Since the Chinese economy influences the global economy, this economic data tend to have a significant impact on the Forex market.
2) - OPEC Meetings – Monday All-Day
OPEC meetings are normally scheduled in Vienna, wherein representatives from 15 oil-rich countries participate. They discuss multiple issues concerning energy markets and, most importantly, agree on how much oil they will produce. It is also worth mentioning that the meetings are normally closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. As in result, the formal statement covering policy shifts and meeting objectives is released after the meetings have concluded.
3) - RBA Interest Rate Decision:- Tuesday - 3:30 GMT
RBA Interest Rate Decision:
This decision is normally made by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and increases the interest rates it is seen as bullish for the AUD currency. conversely, if the RBA has a dovish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as bearish for the AUD currency.
4) – US ISM Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday - 15:00 GMT :
ISM Manufacturing PMI:
This data normally shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector It is one of the leading indicators of the overall economic condition in the United States. The result above 50 would be positive (or bullish) for the greenback, conversely, the result below 50 is seen as bearish for the currency.
5) - Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) – Wednesday - 0:30 GMT
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ):
This data is normally released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which is an examination of the total value of all goods and services produced by Australia. The GDP is considered a key measure of economic activity and health. In that way, the growing trend has a positive or bullish effect on the AUD currency, conversely, the declining trend is seen as bearish for the AUD.
6) - ADP Employment Change - Wednesday - 13:15
ADP Employment Change:
This data is normally released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc, Inc, which studies the change in the number of employed people in the US. In simple words, the rise in this indicator has positive suggestions for consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. In that way, the high figures are seen as positive, or bullish for the greenback, conversely, the low figures are seen as bearish for the US currency.
7): ISM Services PMI – Thursday - 15:00 GMT
ISM Services PMI:
This data is normally released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which measures business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, as compared to the GDP or the ISM Manufacturing does. So, the result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, conversely, the below 50 is seen as bearish for the greenback.
8): CAD - Unemployment Rate – Friday - 13:30 GMT
CAD - Unemployment Rate:
This data is normally released by Statistics Canada, which is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is one of the key indicators for the Canadian Economy. If the rate goes upward, it shows a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, the rise in the unemployment rate leads to weakness in the Canadian economy. However, the low figure is seen as bullish for the CAD, conversely, the rise is seen as negative or bearish for the CAD currency.